Huatai Securities believes that under the dual impetus of policy and industry synergy, unmanned logistics vehicles represented by Robotaxi and Robovan are approaching a commercial inflection point. The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with companies like Pony.ai and WeRide experiencing rapid growth in order volumes, indicating the global export potential of China’s solutions. Robovan has established a positive cycle of “technology cost reduction-scenario validation-scale expansion” in the logistics distribution sector.
Driven by policy-industry resonance, the commercialization of Robo X unmanned logistics vehicles is gaining momentum, with capital market attention significantly heightened due to multiple catalysts. These include Tesla’s planned launch of Robotaxi services in June, continuous validation of business model feasibility through operational data from leading firms, and the global potential of China’s solutions. Huatai Research has reassessed the Robo X industry, with integrated analysis from automotive, electronics, and technology teams on full-chain opportunities. Automotive/Electronics: Policy-Industry Synergy Fuels New Growth for “Robo X” Under policy-industry resonance, Robo X (unmanned vehicles like Robotaxi and Robovan) commercialization is accelerating, boosted by catalysts such as Tesla’s Robotaxi plan, proven business models from top players, and China’s solutions’ global prospects. Key developments include: • Robotaxi: In Q1 2025, Pony.ai, WeRide, and Apollo Go expanded fleets, grew orders rapidly, and actively expanded overseas operations. • Robovan: Demonstrated significant logistics potential, forming a “tech cost-scenario validation-scale expansion” cycle with initial business model success, likely accelerating in 2025. • Broader Applications: Robo X extends to unmanned uses like Robosweeper and Robotruck, with drone logistics emerging. The industry’s acceleration offers investment opportunities across the chain, focusing on core platforms, high-growth hardware suppliers, and scenario integrators. Robotaxi: Commercialization Accelerates with Global Export Potential for China’s Solutions Global Robotaxi commercialization is speeding up, with China’s solutions building competitiveness through complex scenario validation and cost control. Domestically, leaders like Pony.ai, WeRide, and Apollo Go are expanding fleets, increasing orders, and conducting paid operations across cities and internationally.Pony.ai’s Q1 2025 Robotaxi service revenue surged by 200% year-over-year. WeRide’s Robotaxi revenue accounted for 22.3% of its total in Q1 2025, an increase of 10.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Baidu’s Apollo Go service has surpassed 11 million cumulative orders. Overseas, Tesla is expected to launch its Robotaxi service in the United States in June and has commenced relevant testing. Companies like Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox are also increasing their investments.
Robovan: The business model is proving viable, with accelerated deployment anticipated in 2025. Robovan shows significant potential in the logistics and delivery sector, having established a positive cycle of ‘technology cost reduction – scenario validation – scale expansion’. Deployment is expected to accelerate in 2025. 1) Exponential decrease in hardware costs: Neolix’s X3 model price has dropped from RMB 200,000 to RMB 70,000 through 5 generations of iteration. Jiushizhineng’s E6 model base price is as low as RMB 19,800, a 91% reduction from the initial generation. 2) Robovan can achieve significant cost savings for customers through substantially lower operating costs and 24/7 operational capability, indicating the initial validation of its business model. 3) Conditions for scaling are mature. Leading players are accelerating financing and production expansion, leading to a substantial increase in shipments. For instance, Jiushizhineng completed a nearly $300 million Series B funding round, targeting 10,000 unit deliveries in 2025. Neolix aims for over 20,000 unit deliveries in 2025. Robosweeper/Robotruck commercialization accelerates, and drone logistics emerges. The scope of Robo X extends beyond Robotaxi and Robovan into broader unmanned applications. 1) Robosweepers have been deployed at scale in multiple cities, effectively reducing labor costs and improving operational efficiency. 2) Robotrucks demonstrate promising application prospects in specific scenarios such as line-haul logistics, ports, and mining areas. 3) Drone logistics, at the intersection of ‘unmanned logistics’ and the ‘low-altitude economy’, possesses unique advantages in solving the ‘last three kilometers’ challenge of final-leg delivery, meeting high timeliness demands, and transporting across complex terrains. It is gaining prominence, driven by both policy support and industrial development. The accelerated commercialization of Robo X is expected to generate investment opportunities across the entire industry chain. Focus is recommended on: 1) Core operating platforms: Leading companies that have achieved scaled operations in areas like Robotaxi and Robovan, possess clear cost-reduction roadmaps, and maintain technological leadership are poised to benefit first from the industry’s accelerated adoption. 2) High-growth component suppliers: Suppliers with core competitiveness in key areas such as LiDAR, high-performance computing chips/domain controllers, and by-wire chassis, which have already entered mainstream supply chains, are also expected to benefit from the volume increase in autonomous vehicles.3) Innovative Application Scenario Expander: Solution providers with integrated innovation capabilities that deeply integrate autonomous driving technology with specific industry applications, such as companies in smart warehousing, smart logistics parks, and last-mile delivery robotics.
Policy and industry are resonating, accelerating the commercialization of “Robo X”. Why are we re-examining the “Robo X” industry now? Against the backdrop of policy-industry synergy, the “Robo X” sector—represented by Robotaxi and Robovan—is accelerating from pilot demonstrations to large-scale commercial deployment. Multiple key catalysts are emerging, significantly boosting market attention. According to WeRide’s IPO prospectus forecast, the global and Mainland China L4 and above autonomous driving market (including Robotaxi, Robovan, etc.) is expected to reach $1.535 trillion and $581 billion respectively by 2030, with CAGRs of 104% and 105% projected for 2025-2030. We believe the current moment is a critical point to re-examine and the “Robo X” sector. 1) Frequent Key Catalysts Spark Market Enthusiasm for “Robo X”: i. Tesla plans to officially launch an unsupervised, paid Full Self-Driving (FSD) Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, USA in June, significantly increasing attention on Robotaxi and the L4 autonomous driving field. ii. Leading Robotaxi and Robovan companies are disclosing operational data, such as rapid order growth, continuous expansion of operational areas, and significant decreases in per-vehicle costs/pricing, validating business model feasibility and strengthening market expectations for future profitability. iii. Strategic partnerships and global expansion are accelerating: China’s highly complex traffic environment and vast market provide a unique “training ground” for “Robo X” technology. Combined with advantages in cost control, the “China solution” is gradually forming global competitiveness and has begun expanding into overseas markets, exemplified by Pony.ai’s partnership with Uber in the Middle East, WeRide’s expansion into Saudi Arabia, and overseas deployments by Robovan companies like Jiushi Intelligent and Neolix. 2) Robotaxi: Policy Support and Significant Cost Reduction Accelerate Commercial Operations: Driven by multiple favorable factors including continuously optimized policies, breakthroughs in technological bottlenecks, and significant cost reductions, the commercialization process for Robotaxi is accelerating markedly, with market attention rising significantly.① At the policy level, since 2025, first-tier Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen have further expanded the paid operational areas for Robotaxis and refined license management. Additionally, regional mutual recognition mechanisms for test results (e.g., in the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta) have effectively reduced operational costs for enterprises.
② In terms of technology and cost, the capabilities of Level 4 autonomous driving technology in handling complex urban traffic scenarios have been further validated. The cost of core hardware (such as LiDAR and computing units) has significantly decreased; for example, the total cost of Pony.ai’s seventh-generation Robotaxi autonomous driving suite has dropped by 70% compared to the previous generation. The imminent launch of new-generation, front-load mass-produced Robotaxi models by leading companies indicates the industry’s transition from retrofitted testing phases to standardized, large-scale production. ③ Regarding commercial operations, leading Robotaxi firms like Pony.ai, WeRide, and Apollo Go have continuously expanded their operational fleets, achieving significant growth in order volume and service revenue (e.g., Pony.ai’s Robotaxi service revenue increased by 200% year-over-year in Q1 2025). They have also initiated paid operations in core areas of more cities. 3) Robovan: Cost Advantages and Scenario Validation Drive Initial Business Model Success, Paving the Way for Rapid Scaling. Robovan is on the verge of rapid large-scale deployment, leveraging its significant cost-efficiency benefits in specific scenarios and an increasingly mature business model. ① Hardware costs have decreased exponentially. Through five iterations, the cost of Neolix’s X3 model has dropped from 200,000 RMB to 70,000 RMB, while Jushi Intelligent’s newly launched E6 model has a base price as low as 19,800 RMB, representing a 91% reduction from its first-generation model. ② The business model has initially proven successful and formed a positive cycle. By eliminating driver labor costs and enabling 24/7 operation (365 days a year), Robovan can provide over 50% cost savings for clients (e.g., in express delivery, retail, and pharmaceutical distribution). This has been validated in various real-world operational scenarios, creating a virtuous cycle of “technology-driven cost reduction, scenario validation, and scale expansion.” ③ Conditions for scale expansion are mature, with leading companies accelerating production. Jushi Intelligent has completed a nearly $300 million Series B funding round, targeting deliveries of 10,000 units by 2025. Neolix has established a 10,000-unit smart manufacturing facility and plans to deliver over 20,000 vehicles in 2025, positioning the year as a potential “breakout year” for Robovan. 4) From Robotaxi and Robovan to “RoboX”: Expanding into Broader Unmanned Applications. The concept of “Robo X” extends beyond Robotaxi and Robovan, encompassing a wider range of unmanned application fields.① Robosweeper has achieved scaled deployment in multiple cities, significantly reducing sanitation labor costs and improving operational efficiency.
② Robotruck demonstrates strong application potential in specific enclosed or semi-enclosed scenarios such as trunk logistics, ports, and mining areas. ③ As the intersection of unmanned logistics and the low-altitude economy, drone logistics offers unique advantages in solving last-mile delivery challenges (the final three kilometers), meeting high-timeliness demands, and transporting across complex terrains. It is emerging as a new force within the RoboX landscape. The National Development and Reform Commission’s Low-Altitude Department has established a development path of goods before passengers, setting a policy foundation for rapid growth. Leading logistics firms like SF Express and Meituan have made substantial progress in commercial operations, including obtaining operation certificates and launching regular routes. Robotaxi commercialization is accelerating, with Chinese solutions showing potential for global export. The global Robotaxi sector is advancing rapidly from technical validation/pilot phases to commercial implementation. Continuous policy optimization, maturation of key technologies, significant cost reductions, and tangible progress in commercial operations are driving accelerated industry development. 1. Policy Environment Optimization and Commercialization Acceleration: By 2025, increased policy support for Robotaxi has led to breakthroughs in expanding unmanned fee-based operation zones and refining license management in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen. Regional coordination, such as mutual recognition of test results in the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta, has effectively lowered operational costs and accelerated deployment. 2. Technological Maturity and Cost Reduction: L4 autonomous driving technology has proven more capable in complex urban environments, while core hardware costs have dropped substantially. For example, Pony.ai’s seventh-generation Robotaxi kit costs 70% less, with computing unit and LiDAR expenses down 80% and 68% respectively. These improvements enhance the economic feasibility of large-scale deployment. The upcoming launch of next-generation, factory-built Robotaxi models marks a shift from retrofitted testing to standardized production. 3. Expanded Commercial Operations and Global Potential: Leading Robotaxi companies are expanding their operational areas into more urban cores, resulting in significant growth in order volume and revenue. Pony.ai’s Q1 2025 Robotaxi revenue increased by 200% year-over-year, with public fee-based operations in first-tier cities surging 800%. WeRide’s Robotaxi revenue share rose by 10 percentage points year-over-year in Q1 2025.The proportion of 4% has reached 22.3%, with a fleet size exceeding 1,200 vehicles. The cumulative orders for Robo Express have surpassed 11 million, including over 1.4 million autonomous driving orders in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 75%. Additionally, China’s highly complex urban traffic environment provides a unique “training ground” for Robotaxi technology. Combined with its advantages in cost control, the “China Solution” has the potential for global export.
Leading Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas expansion. In April, Pony.ai obtained Luxembourg’s first Robotaxi testing permit, and its Robotaxi service will be integrated into Uber this year, initially launching in the Middle East. WeRide is expanding into the Saudi market, with Robotaxi services now covering 15 cities in the Middle East. In March 2025, Robo Express signed a strategic cooperation with Dubai to deploy more than 1,000 Yichi 06 vehicles. The global commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with Tesla leading industry transformation expectations: 1) Tesla is expected to launch Robotaxi services in the U.S. in June, with related testing already underway. Previously, Musk revealed that Tesla plans to officially launch an unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) paid Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, this June, with plans to gradually expand to other parts of the U. S. and global markets. Musk stated that Tesla will initially launch about 10 autonomous robotaxis in Austin and scale up to 1,000 within a few months. According to recent Bloomberg reports, Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi service on June 12 in Austin and has begun testing unmanned Model Y SUVs on public roads, monitored by engineers in the passenger seat without remote operation. 2) Traditional automakers and tech giants are also accelerating their investments: General Motors’ Cruise has launched a new generation of competitive models; Waymo, leveraging Google’s ecosystem, has expanded to five major U.S. cities and officially received approval to expand Robotaxi services on the San Francisco Peninsula and San Jose, with weekly service frequency reaching 250,000 trips; Amazon’s Zoox focuses on customized Robotaxi development, aiming to provide modular solutions for OEM manufacturers. Chinese Robotaxi companies are accelerating commercialization, with significant achievements in technological iteration and cost optimization: 1) Pony.ai: Commercialization and internationalization are steadily advancing, with the seventh-generation model reducing costs by 70%. The large-scale operation of Robotaxi is showing initial success, and commercialization is progressing steadily both domestically and internationally.As of the end of 2024, the company’s average daily orders per vehicle reached approximately 15. By Q1 2025, Pony.ai’s Robotaxi operational coverage in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had surpassed 2,000 square kilometers. In Q1 2025, Pony.ai generated Robotaxi revenue of $1.73 million, a year-on-year increase of 200%, with revenue from public-facing paid operations in first-tier cities surging by 800% year-on-year.
Domestic Commercialization Progress: 1) In April, access was established via WeChat’s ‘Travel Services’ entry and Tencent Map, potentially reaching over 1.3 billion users; 2) In March, paid Robotaxi services were launched at Beijing South Railway Station, Daxing Airport, and the Yizhuang transportation hub; 3) In March, the company obtained the first Robotaxi market-oriented pilot operation permit in Nanshan District, Shenzhen; 4) In February, approval was granted for dedicated operational routes from Guangzhou city center to Baiyun Airport/Guangzhou South Railway Station. International Expansion: 1) In May, a strategic partnership with Uber was formed, with Robotaxi services set to be integrated into the Uber app, initially launching in the Middle East within the year; 2) In April, the company secured one of Luxembourg’s first Robotaxi testing permits; 3) In March, a joint Robotaxi pilot with Singapore’s ComfortDelGro was initiated in Guangzhou; 4) In January, Robotaxi road testing commenced in Seoul, South Korea. The seventh-generation Robotaxi platform has achieved approximately a 70% reduction in hardware BOM cost and is planned for mass production and operation in the second half of 2025. At the April 23rd Shanghai Auto Show, Pony.ai globally debuted its seventh-generation automotive-grade autonomous driving software and hardware system solution, showcasing three mass-production models from its seventh-generation Robotaxi family: the BAIC New Energy Arcfox Alpha T5, the Toyota bZ4X, and the GAC Aion Hyper King. The total cost of the autonomous driving kit for the seventh-generation models has decreased by 70% compared to the previous generation, with the core components—the onboard computing unit and lidar—seeing cost reductions of 80% and 68% respectively. All three models have completed road testing and are essentially in the trial production phase, with routine production expected to begin this summer. The company anticipates that the seventh-generation platform vehicles will enter mass production and operation in H2 2025, expanding from first-tier cities to second- and third-tier cities. WeRide: Robotaxi Commercialization Accelerates with Breakthroughs in Domestic/International Operations and Partnerships. As of Q1 2025, the company’s fleet size exceeded 1,200 vehicles. Robotaxi revenue reached 16.1 million RMB (approximately $2.2 million), accounting for 22.3% of the company’s total quarterly revenue, a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percentage points. Recent Domestic Progress: 1) Coverage in Guangzhou’s Core Areas: In May, eight 24/7 Robotaxi pilot routes were launched in Guangzhou’s central district, covering hubs like Canton Tower and Baiyun Airport, as well as core landmarks like Zhujiang New Town; 2) L4 Bus Commercialization: In May, Guangzhou’s first paid Level 4 autonomous bus route was opened, spanning 13 kilometers.Sanitation Robots: In Q1 2025, the company expanded street sweeping services to cities like Guangzhou and Dongguan. In May, a trial of the S1 sweeper was launched at Jurong Lake Gardens in Singapore, accelerating international deployment.
International Expansion Accelerates: 1) Middle East Strategic Cooperation: Following the expansion of Robotaxi services to Abu Dhabi and Dubai via the Uber partnership, coverage is being extended to 15 cities in the Middle East. Uber additionally invested $100 million in equity. 2) Global Compliance Layout: In March, the company obtained France’s first Level 4 Robobus trial permit, making it the only autonomous driving enterprise with operational permits in China, the U. S., Europe, Singapore, and the UAE. 3) Apollo Go: The fleet now exceeds 1,000 vehicles, with cumulative orders surpassing 11 million. Recent overseas efforts have promoted multiple collaborations, and Apollo Go now operates in 15 global cities with over 1,000 autonomous vehicles deployed. In Q1 2025, Apollo Go’s autonomous driving orders exceeded 1.4 million, a 75% year-on-year increase. By May 2025, cumulative autonomous travel service orders for Apollo Go had surpassed 11 million. In May 2025, the company defined its global strategic core as ‘Scalable Deployment,’ emphasizing safety as the priority, with the goal of becoming the world’s most successful autonomous driving company expanding internationally. 1) Middle East Scalable Deployment: In March 2025, a strategic cooperation was signed with Dubai to deploy over 1,000 Yichi 06 vehicles and collaborate with Autogo to build Abu Dhabi’s largest unmanned fleet. 2) European Test Preparations: In May 2025, negotiations began for Apollo Go testing in Switzerland, with plans to conduct tests with PostAuto by year-end, while simultaneously advancing the launch of autonomous ride-hailing services in Turkey. Robovan: The business model has been initially validated, with rapid scalable deployment expected in 2025. 2025 is poised to be the first year of rapid scalable deployment for unmanned logistics vehicles, establishing a positive cycle of ‘technology cost reduction – scenario validation – scale expansion.’ According to the Forward Industry Research Institute, by the end of 2024, China had over 6,000 unmanned delivery vehicles in cumulative application, covering 100+ scenarios and delivering hundreds of millions of orders, with actual numbers potentially higher. Companies like Jiushipower, Neolix, and Baixiniu have made significant progress. Their products, by substantially reducing operating costs and improving delivery efficiency, are reshaping urban delivery and even medium- and short-haul transportation business models. The industry has now formed a positive cycle: 1) Hardware costs are decreasing exponentially. For example, the Neolix X3 model’s price dropped from 200,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan through five generations of iteration, and the Jiushipower E6 model’s base price is as low as 1.The price has decreased by 91% compared to the first generation, now at 98,000 yuan.
Robovan offers significant cost savings for clients, with a proven business model. Taking JiuShi unmanned vehicles as an example, compared to traditional driver-based models, unmanned delivery vehicles reduce costs by: 1) Eliminating drivers from production factors, directly saving labor wages and avoiding indirect costs of personnel management (training, scheduling, attendance, etc.). 2) Operating 24/7 year-round (365×24 hours), compared to traditional vehicles which are idle over 40% of the time, significantly improving vehicle utilization and distributing unit transportation costs. Conditions for scale expansion are mature, with leading players rapidly expanding in financing and production capacity. JiuShi Intelligence has completed nearly $300 million in Series B financing; Neolix has built a 10,000-unit smart manufacturing factory, targeting over 20,000 deliveries by 2025; BaiXiniu aims for 5,000 daily active units by 2026. Leading Robovan players include JiuShi Intelligence, Neolix, and BaiXiniu. JiuShi Intelligence, with its competitive hardware pricing (e.g., the E6 model at 19,800 yuan) and ‘low-cost hardware + subscription service’ model, extensively covers diverse urban delivery scenarios such as express delivery, supermarkets, and pharmaceuticals. It has secured key clients like DHL and China Post, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 3,000 units by end-2024, nearly $300 million in Series B financing, and a target of 10,000 deliveries by 2025. Neolix focuses on logistics distribution and campus retail with its X-series unmanned vehicles, partnering with industry leaders like SF Express and JD.com. It has deployed 5,000 units globally, plans annual production capacity of 30,000 units by 2025, and aims to expand into Southwest markets, with Series C+ financing reaching 1 billion yuan. BaiXiniu specializes in instant delivery for fresh food and supermarkets, along with intra-city transfer services, serving clients like Yonghui Superstores and Dada Express. Through collaborations with SF Express and Xinyuan Auto, it enhances vehicle-standard manufacturing and operational capabilities, with Series B financing of 200 million yuan and a goal of 5,000 daily active units by 2026. JiuShi Intelligence has completed nearly $300 million in Series B financing, with a post-investment valuation of $796 million. Founded in August 2021, JiuShi (Suzhou) Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in L4 autonomous driving technology for urban delivery. Its core team has over 15 years of experience in autonomous driving, with founder Kong Qi, a graduate of Jiaotong University’s AI program, having previously worked at Baidu and JD.com. In February 2024, JiuShi completed nearly $100 million in Series A financing, valuing the company at $420 million; in November 2024, it secured $100 million in Series B1 financing; and in April 2025, it raised $100 million in Series B3 financing, reaching a post-investment valuation of $796 million.Zion Intelligence has raised $9.6 billion, with fund allocation as follows: 70% for R&D (next-generation products and solid-state lidar), 20% for supply chain development, and 10% for overseas expansion. The company focuses on the trillion-dollar urban B2B distribution market, operating routinely in over 200 cities across 29 provinces. Its client base spans express delivery, fresh produce supermarkets, pharmaceutical cold chains, food baking, and auto parts industries.
By the end of 2024, Zion had delivered over 3,000 vehicles, served more than 600 clients, and established operations in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East. The new E-series starts at just ¥19,800, completing the transition from a single product to a multi-platform portfolio. Current products include the Z-series (4 models priced between ¥39,800-89,800) and the E-series launched on May 27, 2025. The E-series emphasizes specialized optimization for specific scenarios, with the E6 model designed for lightweight bulk logistics at a hardware price of ¥19,800 plus ¥1,800/month FSD service. Neolix specializes in L4 autonomous vehicle technology, with cumulative orders exceeding 20,000 units. Established in February 2018, the company operates a 10,000-unit capacity smart factory and holds road licenses covering over 100,000 km² across China. It has secured large-scale collaborations with logistics leaders like SF Express and JD.com. By early 2025, Neolix had expanded to 300 cities and 13 countries including Southeast Asia and Japan, with annual production capacity planned at 30,000 units. Its core product X3 features multimodal BEV 4D perception technology with dual lidars, enabling 40 km/h autonomous operation at a reduced cost of ¥70,000 after five generations. The high-end X6 model offers 6m³ loading capacity with cold chain support and centralized computing architecture.The company’s pricing strategy centers on ‘cost reduction through scale,’ leveraging technological iteration and self-built smart manufacturing facilities—including China’s first L4 autonomous vehicle factory—to lower marginal costs. Currently, the company employs a ‘turnkey operations + regional pilot’ model, forming deep partnerships with express delivery firms such as ZTO Express and YTO Express. The average order price ranges between 80,000 and 120,000 RMB (including service fees), while data services—such as dynamic traffic scheduling—contribute 10% of revenue, creating a diversified income structure.
White Rhino positions itself as an ‘autonomous driving service operator’ and has established strategic collaborations with SF Logistics and Yonghui Superstores. Founded on March 13, 2019, by former Baidu Autonomous Driving team members Zhu Lei and Xia Tian, White Rhino Zhida (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. specializes in L4 autonomous driving solutions for last-mile delivery on urban public roads. It was the first L4 autonomous enterprise in China to deploy unmanned delivery for fresh groceries and supermarket goods on public roads. The company focuses on the ‘autonomous driving service operator’ model, entering the instant last-mile delivery sector through integrated hardware-software solutions and operational services, with core applications in pharmaceuticals, fresh produce, and supermarket logistics. By 2025, White Rhino had achieved regular operations in cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, and secured strategic partnerships with SF Logistics and Yonghui Superstores. The company has obtained ISO 22737 certification for L4 vehicle safety, as well as dual certifications from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Public Security. Technically, it utilizes a single Orin chip to enable autonomous driving at 40 km/h on public roads, making it the only industry player to accomplish L4 autonomous driving over 40 km with a single Orin chip. Offering ‘cost-effective unmanned delivery services,’ White Rhino currently features two models: R3 and R5. These vehicles employ automotive-grade sensors and high-computing domain controllers, equipped with a BEV algorithm solution. Their delivery efficiency equals that of 3–5 human couriers, with a single load capacity of up to 100 packages of pharmaceuticals or fresh goods—equivalent to 10–15 human workers. The business model combines hardware, software, and commercial operations, with the company operating its own fleet rather than selling vehicles directly. On April 11, 2025, White Rhino entered a strategic partnership with Ele.me, focusing on unmanned food delivery in campus settings. The collaboration will initially scale autonomous delivery solutions across 100 universities nationwide, using L4 autonomous driving technology to reshape campus food delivery systems. Robosweeper and Robotruck Commercialization Accelerates: Robosweeper (autonomous sanitation vehicles) is seeing accelerated commercial deployment, with leading companies like WeRide and Xiantu Intelligence achieving large-scale implementation across multiple cities.Autonomous sanitation vehicles significantly reduce labor costs, enhance cleaning efficiency, and improve operational safety, with advantages particularly evident during nighttime and adverse weather conditions. Currently, these vehicles are deployed in various scenarios such as parks, campuses, and urban open roads, gradually transitioning to market-based fee operations.
Robotrucks (autonomous trucks) have made positive progress in commercialization within specific contexts like logistics, ports, and mining areas. Companies such as TuSimple (delisted from NASDAQ), Pony.ai, and Inceptio Technology continue to invest in the R&D and testing of L4 autonomous heavy trucks. Autonomous trucks are expected to address industry pain points such as driver shortages and fatigue in long-haul freight, while also improving fuel economy. Despite challenges in regulations and costs, their commercial prospects in specific closed or semi-closed environments are gradually emerging. Traditional engineering machinery and commercial vehicle firms like North Hauler and Yutong Heavy Industries are actively expanding into segments such as unmanned mining trucks. Drones: unmanned logistics combined with the low-altitude economy are gaining prominence. Drone logistics, as a core component of the low-altitude economy and a critical link in unmanned logistics systems, are entering a period of accelerated development. Through structural optimization, model innovation, and all-weather autonomous operations, drone logistics can significantly boost efficiency and reduce operational costs, showing substantial application potential in transport and last-mile delivery. 1) At the、 design level, the National Development and Reform Commission’s Low-Altitude Department has clarified a ‘cargo-first, passenger-later’ development path, laying a policy foundation for rapid short-to-medium-term scaling of drone logistics. Concurrently, multiple central ministries (e.g., the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council’s ‘Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Overall Social Logistics Costs’) and local governments (e. g., Hunan, Guangzhou) have introduced policies to encourage drone applications in logistics, aiming to promote and commercialization of drone delivery. 2) At the industry level, commercial operations of drone logistics have achieved substantive progress recently. In January 2024, SF Express’s Fengyi obtained the nation’s first commercial trial operation license (OC) for logistics drones; in March 2024, AutoFlight received the first type certificate (TC) for a cargo eVTOL; and in April 2025, Meituan’s self-developed fourth-generation drone secured the first nationwide low-altitude logistics full-coverage operation certificate (OC) from the Civil Aviation Administration of China. Leading companies are not only iterating technologically but also actively expanding operational scenarios and route networks, such as in urban instant delivery, rural and remote area logistics, cross-city and cross-sea island transport, and emergency supply.Upstream drone manufacturers such as Chengdu Zongheng Automation Technology and AEROSPACE CHUANGHONG are actively developing and promoting heavy-load, long-endurance drone products for logistics scenarios. Some companies have secured significant orders and achieved batch deliveries.
In terms of market potential, China’s drone logistics market is projected to reach 150 billion yuan by 2030. Driven by low-altitude economy policies, technological maturity, and growing delivery demands, the drone logistics market is expected to experience rapid growth. According to the Shenzhen UAV Industry Association, China’s express delivery drone market size is forecasted to reach approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024. Headway Research predicts that by 2030, China’s logistics drone market will expand to 150 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57%. Investment recommendations: The booming Robo X industry is expected to bring investment opportunities across the entire supply chain. Focus areas include: 1) Core operational platforms: Leading companies in Robotaxi and Robovan sectors with large-scale operations, clear cost-reduction pathways, and advanced technology are likely to benefit first from rapid industry adoption. 2) High-growth component suppliers: Suppliers with core competitiveness in key areas such as LiDAR, high-computing power chips/domain controllers, and steer-by-wire chassis, which are already integrated into mainstream supply chains, may also benefit from the scaling of autonomous vehicles. 3) Innovators in application scenarios: Solution providers capable of deeply integrating autonomous driving technology with specific industry applications, such as smart warehousing, intelligent logistics parks, and last-mile delivery robots. Electronics: Robovan unmanned logistics vehicles are accelerating commercialization, driven by strong urban distribution demand and the onset of L4 autonomy. In the express delivery sector, particularly for cost reduction between outlets and stations, Robovan is speeding up deployment. As low-speed last-mile delivery scenarios become viable, this model is expected to expand to fresh food, supermarkets, and other urban distribution areas. Key industry players include: (1) Startups with L4 autonomous driving technology and logistics experience, such as Neolix, Jiushi Intelligence, and Baixiniu; (2) Delivery companies like Cainiao and Meituan; (3) Multi-scenario L4 firms such as WeRide. Leading companies like Neolix and Jiushi are rapidly producing vehicles to meet demand, with Neolix holding over 20,000 orders. Unmanned logistics vehicles are poised to be the first segment for rapid L4 commercialization, suggesting investment opportunities in express companies, operators, and component suppliers.Unmanned logistics vehicles are advancing toward commercialization, driven by cost reductions, technological progress, and downstream demand for lower operational expenses.
1. Cost as Prerequisite: With the scaling of upstream suppliers in the passenger vehicle autonomous driving industry over recent years, the costs of key components such as LiDAR, chips, and batteries have declined rapidly. The manufacturing cost of unmanned logistics vehicles has now dropped to a range of several tens of thousands of RMB. 2. Technology as Foundation: The rapid adoption of end-to-end AI models in autonomous driving has enabled manufacturers to overcome reliance on high-definition maps. This reduces the time and cost required for road data collection, accelerates vehicle deployment, eliminates fixed-route operational constraints, and enhances scheduling efficiency. 3. Downstream Cost-Reduction Demand as Catalyst: In sectors like express delivery, intense price competition and labor-dominated last-mile transportation make significant per-parcel cost reductions unachievable without technological and operational innovations. Business models are precisely targeted, delivering notable cost savings for clients. Downstream enterprises procure unmanned logistics vehicles, after which suppliers conduct road data testing and simultaneous vehicle production. Upon delivery, clients can operate vehicles directly via software apps, while suppliers manage backend control and maintenance throughout the vehicle lifecycle. Profit models include outright vehicle sales or leasing, supplemented by recurring revenue from software subscription services. For example, the Z5 model from JiuShi Intelligent is priced at ¥49,800 for hardware (cheaper than minivans) plus a quarterly FSD subscription fee of ¥7,000 (more economical than manual labor). As courier companies adopt ‘headquarters-to-headquarters’ promotion models, the unmanned logistics vehicle industry is experiencing rapid delivery growth, led by express sector demand. Road access rights and regulations remain unstandardized, with low-speed urban distribution as the current core scenario. Road access rights, managed by public security authorities alongside multiple departments, vary significantly across regions without a unified national standard. Companies like New Stone have obtained public road access in over 100 cities. However, the absence of standardized regulations limits fleet scaling: (1) produced vehicles require continuous applications for test licenses, and (2) current standards focus on small-to-medium vehicles operating under 40 km/h, confining applications largely to last-mile low-speed delivery rather than intercity high-speed logistics.According to statistics from TransLink Research Institute, China had 14.59 million vehicles deployed in urban distribution scenarios in 2022. Unmanned logistics vehicles are currently in the initial development phase, indicating vast potential for future replacement of terminal market scale.
Authors: Song Tingting, Xie Chunsheng, He Pianpian, Zhang Shuo, Guo Chunlin, Zhang Yu, Tang Shihao Source: Huatai Ruisi Original Title: Huatai | Joint Analysis: Unmanned Logistics Vehicles Reach Commercial Inflection Point Risk Disclaimer: Markets involve risks, investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice nor considers individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should evaluate whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein align with their particular circumstances. Investment decisions based on this content are made at one’s own responsibility.
